US Stocks Surge Amid Record Highs, Inflation, and Rebalancing Risks  As stock markets continue to reach unprecedented highs, equities maintain their upward trajectory relative to bonds, growing increasingly expensive in comparison. This relentless climb in stock prices underscores a deepening divergence between the two asset classes. The near-...

Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 48 : Global Market Insights: Stocks, Inflation, and Tariffs Overview  In the U.S., small-cap stocks joined their larger peers in reaching record territory, marking another week of notable gains for equity markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index, and S&P 400 MidCap Index achieved intraday h...

Global Inflation Rises Again, Threatening Interest Rate Cuts  Global Consumer Price Index (CPI) has begun to climb again after hitting a cyclical low, raising concerns about the feasibility of anticipated global interest rate cuts. For the past two years, global median CPI had been on a steady downward trajectory. However, recent developments ...

US Markets Outlook : Strategies Amid Momentum Decline and Macro Shifts  With momentum quietly fading beneath the surface of US markets, as seen in the largest five-day underperformance of momentum versus the S&P in nearly two years, the focus shifts to strategies and insights that can navigate the complex terrain of the coming weeks. Tony ...

Solid 7-Year Treasury Auction Closes Week with Strong Market Impact  Following a remarkable performance in the 2-year auction and a robust 5-year auction earlier this week, today's $44 billion 7-year Treasury sale concluded the week's accelerated coupon issuance in impressive fashion with another strong showing. The auction delivered a high yi...

Q3 GDP Holds Steady at 2.8% Amid Mixed Consumer and Price Trends  Few anticipated the second estimate of third-quarter GDP to deliver anything particularly surprising, and indeed, expectations held firm when the data proved uneventful. Initially reported at an annualized growth rate of 2.8% in the preliminary estimate released last month, the ...

Bond Market Signals Inflation Rise After US Election  Following the US election, the bond market anticipates an uptick in inflation, with fixing swaps adjusting expectations for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) starting in the second quarter of next year. Since yields began climbing in mid-September, partly due to the growing likelihood of a Tru...

Fed Signals Mixed Views on Rate Cuts Amid Shifting Economic Landscape Suddenly, a shift occurred in the Federal Reserve's discussions about interest rates. Before the election, there was virtually no dissent about the decision to cut rates, but now, a growing number of participants are advocating for a more cautious approach. Some suggest slowing t...

5-Year Treasury Auction Shows Solid Demand Despite Foreign Pullback  Following the strong performance of the 2-year Treasury auction yesterday, market participants anticipated similar results from today's 5-year auction. Stable yields throughout the session, following a sharp flattening that inverted the 2s10s curve, bolstered these expectatio...

3-Month/10-Year Yield Curve Disinversion Signals Market Relief  The financial landscape is evolving as the yield curve between the 3-month and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes approaches positive territory. This shift holds greater significance than the widely observed 2-year/10-year yield curve. A transition to positivity in the 3-month/10-year cu...

Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 47 : US Markets Rise Broadly Amid Positive Economic Sentiment  The U.S. stock markets made significant strides this week, with major indexes nearing record highs as investors regained confidence following recent losses. These gains came amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policy directi...

Eurozone Faces Rising Recession Risks Amid Weak PMI Data  The implied likelihood of a recession in Europe is growing, with market indicators reacting strongly to a particularly weak set of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from the region. Rates in Europe are now reflecting this increased probability. Euribor futures have moved approximate...

VIX1D Signal Points to Potential Short-Term Weakness in S&P 500  A signal based on the VIX, specifically for zero-days-to-expiry (0DTE) options, has triggered, marking an event that has historically coincided with short-term underperformance in the S&P 500. These 0DTE options have become a dominant force in the market, accounting for n...

Treasury Borrowing Strains Markets, Signals Risks for Stocks and Bonds  The immense borrowing spree by the U.S. Treasury is beginning to exert significant pressure across financial markets, creating ripple effects that are distorting signals in stocks, bonds, and credit. This insatiable demand for funding, driven by persistent fiscal deficits,...

Existing Home Sales Rebound in October, Prices Hit Record Highs  October brought a glimmer of hope to the U.S. housing market, as existing home sales managed to rebound after months of disappointing performance. The market had been stuck in a rut, with sales declining in six of the prior seven months and plunging to the lowest levels since 201...

Disastrous 20-Year Treasury Auction Signals Weak Investor Demand  Today's 20-year Treasury auction was a clear disappointment, signaling weak demand for long-term U.S. government debt. The $16 billion sale priced at a high yield of 4.680%, which was 3 basis points above the 4.650% "when issued" yield. This marked the third consecutive auction ...

Nasdaq Stumbles as Tech Faces Challenges Amid Policy Uncertainty  Last week proved challenging for the technology sector, as Peter Callahan, a tech trader and specialist at Goldman Sachs, noted in his recent commentary. The Nasdaq had a rough run, going 0-5 across the week—a streak not seen in the last five years and one of just 36 scoreless w...

Nvidia Earnings, Treasury Secretary Race, Global PMI Insights Ahead  This morning, as I reflect on the week ahead, I find myself cautiously hopeful yet undeniably weary after the relentless stream of U.S. macroeconomic data, earnings reports, and political developments we've endured recently. Thankfully, this week seems poised to offer some re...

Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 46 : Global Markets Face Volatility Amid Policy Shifts and Economic Data  The past week brought significant developments across global markets, influenced by political transitions in the United States, mixed economic data releases, and evolving corporate strategies. Investor sentiment was shaped by uncertainties s...

Goldman Sachs 2025 Outlook: US Growth, Tariff Risks, and Market Trends  It may have been overshadowed by the current anticipation surrounding Trump's policy announcements—which are expected to reshape the economic landscape—but Goldman Sachs recently released its comprehensive 2025 year-ahead reports. These include in-depth analyses of markets...