CBO Projects Rising US Deficits and Global Fiscal Tightening Challenges  Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management, discussed insights from the latest report by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO): "The CBO estimates the 2024 deficit will be 7% of GDP, with the 2034 deficit projected at 6.9% of GDP. This implies a 7% annual...

Global Economic Crisis Looms: Japan's $63B Treasury Liquidation Sparks Fears  In a recent interview, Greg Hunter and Bill Holter discussed the precarious state of the global economy. They emphasized the potential for a widespread financial crisis, citing Japan's banking giant Norinchukin liquidating $63 billion in treasuries and European bonds...

Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 25 : Stocks Gain, Broader Market Moves, and Economic Data Insights  U.S. Stocks See Gains Amid Broader Market MovementsStocks showed moderate gains over a shortened trading week with markets closed on Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday These gains helped push the S&P 500 Index to new all-time highs The week ...

US PMIs Surpass Expectations, Contrast Sharp Declines in Europe  Following this morning's disappointing European PMI data, the preliminary June US PMI figures were anticipated to see a slight decline but still remain in expansion territory (above 50) for both manufacturing and services Contrary to expectations given the poor US macroeconomic d...

Goldman Sachs Shifts Focus to Middle-Income Consumers Amid Market Woes  Two months ago, Goldman's Prime Brokerage desk observed hedge funds quietly liquidating their consumer exposure prompting the bank to ask if something changed Following notable blow-ups in the consumer discretionary space the answer was yes because the XLY consumer discret...

Rising Stock Market Optimism Amid Economic Uncertainty  The latest consumer survey data from the New York Federal Reserve provided intriguing insights. According to the New York Fed, expectations that stock prices will rise in the next 12 months increased from 39% to 41% compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, inflation expectations slightl...

PPI Falls Unexpectedly, Jobless Claims Surge: Economic Reality Check  After a softer-than-expected CPI report triggered a buying frenzy in stocks and bonds (until Powell dampened the enthusiasm), today's PPI is anticipated to be mixed, with a smaller month-over-month increase but a higher year-over-year rise, surpassing the 12-month highs reco...

Fed Members' 2024 Rate Predictions Shift to Higher Levels, No Dissent  In March, 10 Federal Reserve members predicted that interest rates would be at 4.625 percent or lower by the end of 2024, but now, none hold that view June Dots Summary No Cuts: 4 (previously 2 in March) 1 Cut: 7 (previously 2 in March) 2 Cuts: 8 (previously 5 in March) 3 C...

May CPI Unchanged, Energy Prices Drop; Core CPI Falls to 3-Year Low  In May, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed no change month-over-month (MoM), marking the smallest shift since July 2022 and slightly below the anticipated +0.1% MoM increase. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, headline CPI rose by 3.3%, just under the expected 3.4%,...

Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 23 : U.S. Services Surge While Manufacturing Faces Ongoing Challenges  U.S. Market Update Key market indices had mixed results this week The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit record intraday highs while smaller-cap indices saw declines Growth stocks significantly outperformed value stocks driven by falling long...

Revisiting Rate Outlook Amid Political Reactions and Fed Anticipations  As the 10-year Treasury approaches the lower end of our 4.3% to 4.5% range, amidst analyzing jobs data and preparing for the Federal Reserve's next moves, it's a fitting moment to reassess and clarify our rate outlook. Before delving deeper, it's prudent to consider the po...

Rising Jobless Claims Amid Questionable Government Data and Trends  Another week brings another jobless claims report from the government to scrutinize. According to the data from Biden's Department of Labor, 229,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the first time last week, up from a revised 221,000 the previous week, and higher ...

ECB Cuts Rates by 25bps, Signals Continued Data-Dependent Approach  In the past 24 hours, the ECB became the second G7 central bank to start an easing cycle following the Bank of Canada The ECB officially announced a widely anticipated 25 basis points cut to its key rates Deposit Facility Rate down by 25bps to 3.75% Main Refinancing Rate down ...

ECB Set to Cut Rates for First Time Since 2019 Amid Inflation Concerns  Following the Bank of Canada's (BoC) recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to reduce the deposit rate from 4.00% to 3.75% for the first time since September 2019. Market analysts give a 94% probability to this outco...

Bank of Canada Cuts Rates to 4.75%, Signals Possible Future Reductions  As anticipated following recent dovish signals, the Bank of Canada has reduced interest rates by 25 basis points from 5.00% to 4.75%. This move aligns with the expectations of most economists and hints at potential future cuts if inflation continues to decline. This reduct...

Labor Market Deterioration Likely to Prompt Near-Term Fed Rate Cut  In his latest Macro Roadmap, Goldman trader Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli stated that a near-term Fed rate cut is more likely to result from a weakening US labor market than from changes in inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell shares this view, having mentioned after the May 1 FOMC d...

Stocks and Bonds React Differently to ISM, Payrolls, and CPI Data  Bond yields typically increase following major data releases such as payrolls, ISM, and CPI, but in recent years, they have shown a more pronounced rise after payroll reports. Stock movements, however, tend to be less influenced by these releases, except for the ISM data, which...

April Job Openings Plunge to New Lows, Raising Economic Concerns  After several months of uneventful JOLTS reports, Janet Yellen's preferred labor market indicator took a sharp turn for the worse. In March, job openings unexpectedly dropped by 325,000, bringing the total down to 8.5 million, the lowest in three years. The latest April update f...

Central Bank Policies: Unseen Harm to Economy and Living Standards  Central bank monetary policies have been detrimental, exacerbating economic problems instead of resolving them. Comparable to a surgeon worsening a patient's condition through an operation, central banks enact policies that ultimately cause more harm. This article, originally ...

Goldman Releases Key Reports on Hedge Fund and Mutual Fund Trends  Today, Goldman released two of its highly anticipated periodic reports: the Hedge Fund Trend Monitor and Mutual Fundamentals. These reports provide a comprehensive overview of the quarterly activities and fund flows of hedge funds and mutual funds, respectively. Both reports ar...