Key Events This Week : Fed Commentary Dominates Ahead of Core PCE Inflation Report Release
After a fast-paced week packed with significant economic data and multiple central bank activities, the focus shifts to Federal Reserve commentary, leading up to Friday's core PCE inflation report. Fed official Bostic (a dovish voter) kicks off the week, followed by Goolsbee (a dovish non-voter), who may hint at further interest rate cuts. Bowman will explain her dissenting vote at an FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Thursday. Kugler (neutral voter) speaks on Wednesday, with a joint discussion alongside Collins (dovish non-voter) on Thursday. That same day features the 10th annual US Treasury Market Conference, with pre-recorded remarks from Powell, and presentations by Williams (dovish voter) and Barr (dovish voter). It's shaping up to be a busy week, packed with Fed speakers, all under close scrutiny.
On the data front, Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank notes that Thursday's final US Q2 GDP reading (expected to remain at 3.0%) and the personal income and consumption report, which includes the core PCE, are key highlights. The core PCE is expected to rise by 0.18% in August, pushing the year-over-year rate to 2.7%. Additionally, the GDP report will include five years of revisions, potentially altering perspectives on the economic cycle. Other key data includes Tuesday's consumer confidence report, Wednesday's new home sales, Thursday's durable goods orders, and Friday's trade balance.
In other news, Olaf Scholz's SPD party narrowly retained first place in Brandenburg over the far-right AfD, capturing 30.9% of the vote compared to AfD's 29.2%. Brandenburg has been an SPD stronghold since German reunification in 1990, and while the regional premier distanced himself from the federal government during the campaign, the results don't strongly reflect national politics. However, the rise of AfD—coming first or second in three consecutive regional elections—remains concerning, even as mainstream parties refuse to partner with them.
Here's a day-by-day event breakdown, courtesy of Deutsche Bank:
Monday, September 23
Data: September PMIs for the US, UK, Germany, France, and Eurozone; US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August).
Central Banks: Fed speakers Bostic, Goolsbee, and Kashkari; ECB's Cipollone.
Tuesday, September 24
Data: US consumer confidence (September), Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, July FHFA house price index, Japan PMIs (September), Germany Ifo survey (September).
Central Banks: ECB's Nagel speaks; RBA policy decision.
Auctions: US 2-year notes.
Wednesday, September 25
Data: US new home sales (August), China MLF rate (1-year), Japan PPI services (August), France consumer confidence (September), Australia CPI (August).
Central Banks: Riksbank decision.
Earnings: Micron.
Auctions: US 2-year FRN, 5-year notes.
Thursday, September 26
Data: US durable goods orders (August), pending home sales, Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, Germany GfK consumer confidence (October), Italy consumer confidence (September), Eurozone M3 (August).
Central Banks: Fed speakers Powell, Collins, Kugler, Williams, Barr, and Kashkari; ECB's Lagarde; ECB bulletin; BoJ minutes; SNB decision.
Earnings: Costco, H&M.
Auctions: US 7-year notes.
Friday, September 27
Data: US PCE (August), personal income and spending, wholesale inventories, advance trade balance (August), Kansas City Fed services index, China industrial profits (August), Japan Tokyo CPI (September), Germany unemployment rate (September), France CPI (September), Italy PPI (August), Eurozone economic confidence (September), Canada GDP (July).
Central Banks: ECB's consumer expectations survey, speeches by ECB officials Rehn, Lane, Cipollone, and Nagel.
On the data front, Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank notes that Thursday's final US Q2 GDP reading (expected to remain at 3.0%) and the personal income and consumption report, which includes the core PCE, are key highlights. The core PCE is expected to rise by 0.18% in August, pushing the year-over-year rate to 2.7%. Additionally, the GDP report will include five years of revisions, potentially altering perspectives on the economic cycle. Other key data includes Tuesday's consumer confidence report, Wednesday's new home sales, Thursday's durable goods orders, and Friday's trade balance.
In other news, Olaf Scholz's SPD party narrowly retained first place in Brandenburg over the far-right AfD, capturing 30.9% of the vote compared to AfD's 29.2%. Brandenburg has been an SPD stronghold since German reunification in 1990, and while the regional premier distanced himself from the federal government during the campaign, the results don't strongly reflect national politics. However, the rise of AfD—coming first or second in three consecutive regional elections—remains concerning, even as mainstream parties refuse to partner with them.
Here's a day-by-day event breakdown, courtesy of Deutsche Bank:
Monday, September 23
Data: September PMIs for the US, UK, Germany, France, and Eurozone; US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August).
Central Banks: Fed speakers Bostic, Goolsbee, and Kashkari; ECB's Cipollone.
Tuesday, September 24
Data: US consumer confidence (September), Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, July FHFA house price index, Japan PMIs (September), Germany Ifo survey (September).
Central Banks: ECB's Nagel speaks; RBA policy decision.
Auctions: US 2-year notes.
Wednesday, September 25
Data: US new home sales (August), China MLF rate (1-year), Japan PPI services (August), France consumer confidence (September), Australia CPI (August).
Central Banks: Riksbank decision.
Earnings: Micron.
Auctions: US 2-year FRN, 5-year notes.
Thursday, September 26
Data: US durable goods orders (August), pending home sales, Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, Germany GfK consumer confidence (October), Italy consumer confidence (September), Eurozone M3 (August).
Central Banks: Fed speakers Powell, Collins, Kugler, Williams, Barr, and Kashkari; ECB's Lagarde; ECB bulletin; BoJ minutes; SNB decision.
Earnings: Costco, H&M.
Auctions: US 7-year notes.
Friday, September 27
Data: US PCE (August), personal income and spending, wholesale inventories, advance trade balance (August), Kansas City Fed services index, China industrial profits (August), Japan Tokyo CPI (September), Germany unemployment rate (September), France CPI (September), Italy PPI (August), Eurozone economic confidence (September), Canada GDP (July).
Central Banks: ECB's consumer expectations survey, speeches by ECB officials Rehn, Lane, Cipollone, and Nagel.
Lastly, the key US data releases for this week are Thursday's durable goods report and Friday's core PCE inflation figure. Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, providing more insight into their economic outlook.