Nvidia Earnings, Treasury Secretary Race, Global PMI Insights Ahead
This morning, as I reflect on the week ahead, I find myself cautiously hopeful yet undeniably weary after the relentless stream of U.S. macroeconomic data, earnings reports, and political developments we've endured recently. Thankfully, this week seems poised to offer some respite, with a slower pace of major news. The primary narrative is shifting towards political appointments within the Trump administration, where the race for the Treasury Secretary position is heating up. Over the weekend, speculation swirled around two perceived frontrunners, Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick, each vying for the role. Adding to the intrigue, Elon Musk endorsed Lutnick as a disruptor, pointing to his provocative comments about America's past economic policies. Lutnick's statement, "When was America great? 125 years ago. We had no income tax, and all we had was tariffs," has certainly sparked conversations. It's shaping up to be a fascinating contest to watch.Even with a calmer macroeconomic landscape, the week holds significant moments, especially for the markets. After the bell on Wednesday, all eyes will turn to Nvidia's earnings report. With a staggering $3.48 trillion in market capitalization tied to this event, the stakes are enormous. To put this into perspective, the combined market capitalizations of the FTSE, DAX, and CAC total less than Nvidia's. It's as though the entire stock markets of major G7 nations are reporting simultaneously—a financial event with global implications.
Later in the week, Friday's release of global flash PMIs will be closely watched. These preliminary readings may provide the first insights into how Trump's election victory is resonating across different economies. Europe, in particular, stands at a crossroads, awaiting clarity on how its trade dynamics with the U.S. might shift under the new administration. Meanwhile, in the U.S., key economic data points will include housing starts and building permits on Tuesday, jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report on Friday.
Inflation will also take center stage, with critical updates from several major economies. Tomorrow, the Eurozone will release its final CPI figures, followed by Canada's inflation data. The UK will unveil its October CPI on Wednesday, alongside RPI and PPI figures, while Japan's national CPI data will come on Thursday. Inflation trends in the UK are expected to remain mixed. While headline CPI is forecast to rise to 2.07% year-over-year, core CPI is anticipated to dip slightly to 3.07%. In Japan, core inflation excluding fresh food is expected to register at 2.1%, with the narrower core-core measure (excluding fresh food and energy) projected at 2.2%.
Central bank actions will also be in focus, with a host of speeches and updates from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England (BoE). These insights, combined with the data releases, will provide a clearer picture of where global monetary policy might be headed in the coming months.
Here's a look at how the week unfolds:
Monday, November 18
The day kicks off with U.S. data releases, including the New York Fed's November services business activity index and the NAHB housing market index. Internationally, the Eurozone will report its September trade balance, and Canada will release housing starts for October. Central bank speakers include Fed's Austan Goolsbee and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, along with several ECB representatives, including President Christine Lagarde.
Tuesday, November 19
The focus shifts to housing, with U.S. October housing starts and building permits on deck. In Canada, inflation data for October will be released, and Japan will publish its October trade balance. Corporate earnings include major names such as Walmart, Lowe's, and XPeng, setting the tone for the retail sector.
Wednesday, November 20
All eyes will be on Nvidia as it reports earnings after the bell, alongside companies like Palo Alto Networks, Snowflake, and Target. Key economic data for the day includes the UK's inflation figures for October (CPI, RPI, and PPI), Germany's October PPI, and China's loan prime rates. The BoE's Dave Ramsden and several ECB officials are also scheduled to speak.
Thursday, November 21
The day features several significant U.S. releases, including initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed business outlook, and October's existing home sales. Japan will publish its October national CPI, while the Eurozone will release November's consumer confidence data. On the corporate front, Deere and Baidu are among the companies reporting earnings.
Friday, November 22
The week concludes with global flash PMIs, which will shed light on how major economies are faring amid shifting global dynamics. Retail sales data from Canada and France will also be released. ECB President Lagarde will be among the speakers wrapping up the week.
For the U.S., Thursday's Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index stands out as a key data point, with markets watching for signs of a post-election sentiment shift. Housing data and jobless claims will also attract attention, alongside remarks from key Fed officials.
While the pace of news may slow, the significance of what's unfolding cannot be understated. Whether it's Nvidia's pivotal earnings report or the contest for Treasury Secretary, the events of this week are bound to set the stage for the weeks and months ahead.