Next week, inflation will be a key focus, with significant reports such as the US PCE, preliminary August CPI data in Europe, and Tokyo's CPI. Galina Pozdnyakova from Deutsche Bank also notes that consumer confidence and economic activity indicators will be released across major economies. In terms of earnings, Nvidia's results on Wednesday will draw significant attention.
In the US, the spotlight will be on the PCE inflation data due on Friday, the last significant report before the Federal Reserve's decision on September 18. US economists anticipate that the core PCE index will rise by 0.2% month-over-month, with both personal income and consumption expected to increase by 0.2%. Other key US data releases include durable goods orders on Monday, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index on Tuesday, and the advance goods trade balance on Thursday.
In Europe, the main focus will be the preliminary August CPI reports, starting with Germany and Spain on Thursday, followed by France, Italy, and the Eurozone on Friday. The ECB will meet on September 12, and economists predict the Eurozone's headline inflation (HICP) will decrease to 2.2% year-over-year (from 2.6% in July), with core inflation slowing to 2.8%. Across major European economies, they expect Germany's HICP at 2.2%, France's at 2.1%, Italy's at 1.3%, and Spain's at 2.5%.
In addition to inflation data, labor market indicators will be released across key economies throughout the week. Germany's Ifo survey results are expected on Monday, and Sweden's Q2 GDP data will be released on Thursday. Consumer confidence data is due from Germany and France on Wednesday and Italy on Friday. In Asia, Japan will see a busy week of data releases, including the Tokyo CPI for August, labor market figures, and industrial production on Friday, along with consumer confidence on Thursday. The Tokyo CPI is the most anticipated release following today's national CPI data, with expectations for core inflation to rise by 2.2% and core-core inflation to reach 1.4%.
Elsewhere in the region, notable events include Australia's CPI on Wednesday and China's 1-year MLF rate fixing. Earnings reports from major Chinese banks, as well as PDD, BYD, and Meituan, will also be in focus.
Regarding earnings, Nvidia's report on Wednesday is expected to be a significant event, especially following its 25% stock price rally since August 7, despite being 8.7% below its all-time high on June 18. Salesforce, Crowdstrike, and Okta are also scheduled to report on Wednesday.
Here's a day-by-day summary of key events:
Monday: The PBOC's 1-year MLF rate decision left rates unchanged at 2.30%. Key data includes July PPI for Spain, Germany's IFO survey, US durable goods orders, and the Dallas Fed's manufacturing activity survey. The Fed's Mary Daly will speak.
Tuesday: Japan's July services PPI, China's industrial profits data, and the final Q2 GDP read for Germany will be released. In the US, the Conference Board's August Consumer Confidence index and house price data will be in focus. ECB's Knot and Nagel are scheduled to speak.
Wednesday: Australia's monthly CPI for July, consumer confidence figures for France and Germany, and MBA mortgage data from the US are due. Central bank speakers include Fed's Waller, Bostic, and the BOE's Catherine Mann.
Thursday: Key releases include August business confidence for New Zealand, Q2 private capex for Australia, preliminary August CPI for Spain and Germany, Canada's June payroll employment, and US Q2 GDP revisions and weekly jobless claims. ECB's Nagel and Fed's Bostic are also scheduled to speak.
Friday: Data releases include New Zealand building permits, Australian retail sales, Japan's industrial production, Australia's private credit, and Tokyo's CPI. In Europe, the EU CPI for August, EU unemployment, and UK house prices will be released. In North America, Canada's June GDP and the US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report and July PCE report will be key data to watch.
Goldman Sachs highlights that the most important US data next week are Monday's durable goods report and Friday's core PCE inflation data. There will also be several speaking engagements from Fed officials throughout the week.
Comments