Powell to Address Fed's Unexpected Rate Cut and Economic Outlook  Since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in July, U.S. macroeconomic data has consistently exceeded expectations, signaling a strengthening economy. However, despite the positive outlook, the Federal Reserve made a surprising move on September 18, cutting interest ...

Key Events This Week : Fed Commentary Dominates Ahead of Core PCE Inflation Report Release  After a fast-paced week packed with significant economic data and multiple central bank activities, the focus shifts to Federal Reserve commentary, leading up to Friday's core PCE inflation report. Fed official Bostic (a dovish voter) kicks off the week...

Federal Reserve Faces Pressure as Inflation and Debt Concerns Mount  Last week, GnS Economics predicted that the Federal Reserve would implement a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut. Our reasoning behind this forecast is grounded in recent economic indicators. Specifically, the 'super-core' inflation, which measures services inflation excluding en...

Global Easing and Weaker Dollar Fuel Rising Excess Liquidity, Boost Stocks  A shift in global monetary policy, now extending to the U.S., and a weaker dollar are fueling an increase in excess liquidity, which continues to support stock market growth. With recession risks relatively low in the near term, the current environment remains conduciv...

Fed Cuts Rates by 50bps, Markets React as Powell Strikes Cautious Tone  Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, following the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), brought significant reactions across financial markets. While Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy is in a solid position and that the rate cut wa...

Rising US Debt Crisis: How Reckless Borrowing Threatens Stability  Today, the U.S. federal debt has skyrocketed to $35.3 trillion, with a staggering increase of $1.9 trillion in just under a year—despite a period of strong economic growth and record tax revenues. The Treasury projects an additional $16 trillion in debt by 2034 if current polic...

Bank of Canada Cuts Rates Again Amid Inflation and Economic Concerns  Hungary ends its rate cuts as prices rise and the currency weakens becoming the first central bank to conclude its easing cycle prematurely. Other central banks still have some time before reaching this point. The Bank of Canada recently reduced its overnight lending rate by...

Inflation Data and Nvidia Earnings Highlight Key Economic Events  Next week, inflation will be a key focus, with significant reports such as the US PCE, preliminary August CPI data in Europe, and Tokyo's CPI. Galina Pozdnyakova from Deutsche Bank also notes that consumer confidence and economic activity indicators will be released across major...

Fed's Easing Bias Sparks Market Rally Amid Renewed Inflation Risks  Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns that the recent surge in stock prices may leave many investors behind once again. Following a significant deleveraging event, fear of missing out (FOMO) is driving a rush into index options, with traders scrambling to capitalize on the rising ...

Powell Signals Dovish Shift as Markets React to Cooling Labor Data  Powell has made his move, and it's a stark contrast to two years ago when he warned of impending "pain" amid soaring inflation. This time, his tone is much more dovish. With inflation now seemingly behind us, Powell has completed his pivot, emphasizing that the labor market is...

Fed Keeps Rates Steady in July, Hints at Possible September Rate Cut  In July, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep interest rates unchanged, but subtly adjusted its statement to leave open the possibility of a rate cut in September. Unlike June's statement, which emphasized a strong focus on inflation risks, the Committee ...

Bank of England Cuts Interest Rates Amid Global Easing Trend  The global trend towards easing monetary policy is clearly underway. Although the Federal Reserve refrained from cutting rates immediately and instead postponed the decision to September, the Bank of England (BoE) has now joined the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the European Central...

Gold Shines as Fed Holds Rates, Market Awaits Dovish Signals  Since the last FOMC meeting on June 12, gold has seen significant gains, while the dollar and crude oil have underperformed. Stocks and bonds have risen as well. US macroeconomic 'hard' data has generally weakened since the last FOMC meeting, despite occasional positive blips. This ...

ECB Holds Rates Steady, Reaffirms Commitment to 2% Inflation Target  As anticipated, the ECB chose to keep interest rates unchanged and provided a clear message for those seeking decisive guidance:Here's the gist of it:"The Governing Council is committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% medium-term target promptly. Policy rates will remain...

Goldman Sachs Suggests Fed Rate Cut in July Amid Rising Confidence  After Powell predictably avoided giving any clues about the timing of the Federal Reserve's next move, he did note that the last three inflation reports had "added to confidence." Speculation is now focused on when, not if, action will be taken. Goldman Sachs chief economist J...

PPI Rises in June, Signals Potential Disruptions in Disinflation Trend  Following yesterday's soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, this morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) appears underwhelming. However, as previously mentioned, it is crucial to the ongoing disinflationary trend and indicates potential irregularities in this trajectory. In...

CPI Falls 0.1% in June, Fueling Rate Cut Speculations  Heading into today's CPI release, expectations were high for more signs of a return to disinflation. These expectations were exceeded as headline consumer prices fell 0.1% month-over-month in June, contrasting with the forecasted 0.1% increase, marking the largest month-over-month decline ...

Fed Signals September Rate Cut Amid CPI Expectations  Nick Timiraos has published two previews of a September rate cut within 24 hours, just as expected, following the guidance of his Federal Reserve sources. The message is clear: while the Fed may not cut rates at the July FOMC meeting, it will strongly indicate that a cut in September is imm...

Inflation Expectations Fall; Modest Gains in Three-Year Outlook  Inflation expectations for the next year have decreased for the second consecutive month, dropping to 3.02% in June from 3.17% in May and a peak of 3.26% in April, according to the New York Fed's survey of consumer expectations. Meanwhile, three-year inflation expectations increa...

Fed Minutes Reveal Inflation Concerns, Divided Views on Rate Hikes  Since the last FOMC statement on June 12, prices for oil, gold, stocks, the dollar, and parts of the bond market have increased. The shorter end of the yield curve has decreased in yield since the last FOMC meeting, but the longer end remains higher despite today's drop in yie...