ECB Cuts Rates by 25bps, Signals Continued Data-Dependent Approach  In the past 24 hours, the ECB became the second G7 central bank to start an easing cycle following the Bank of Canada The ECB officially announced a widely anticipated 25 basis points cut to its key rates Deposit Facility Rate down by 25bps to 3.75% Main Refinancing Rate down ...

ECB Set to Cut Rates for First Time Since 2019 Amid Inflation Concerns  Following the Bank of Canada's (BoC) recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to reduce the deposit rate from 4.00% to 3.75% for the first time since September 2019. Market analysts give a 94% probability to this outco...

Bank of Canada Cuts Rates to 4.75%, Signals Possible Future Reductions  As anticipated following recent dovish signals, the Bank of Canada has reduced interest rates by 25 basis points from 5.00% to 4.75%. This move aligns with the expectations of most economists and hints at potential future cuts if inflation continues to decline. This reduct...

Labor Market Deterioration Likely to Prompt Near-Term Fed Rate Cut  In his latest Macro Roadmap, Goldman trader Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli stated that a near-term Fed rate cut is more likely to result from a weakening US labor market than from changes in inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell shares this view, having mentioned after the May 1 FOMC d...

Stocks and Bonds React Differently to ISM, Payrolls, and CPI Data  Bond yields typically increase following major data releases such as payrolls, ISM, and CPI, but in recent years, they have shown a more pronounced rise after payroll reports. Stock movements, however, tend to be less influenced by these releases, except for the ISM data, which...

April Job Openings Plunge to New Lows, Raising Economic Concerns  After several months of uneventful JOLTS reports, Janet Yellen's preferred labor market indicator took a sharp turn for the worse. In March, job openings unexpectedly dropped by 325,000, bringing the total down to 8.5 million, the lowest in three years. The latest April update f...

Central Bank Policies: Unseen Harm to Economy and Living Standards  Central bank monetary policies have been detrimental, exacerbating economic problems instead of resolving them. Comparable to a surgeon worsening a patient's condition through an operation, central banks enact policies that ultimately cause more harm. This article, originally ...

Goldman Releases Key Reports on Hedge Fund and Mutual Fund Trends  Today, Goldman released two of its highly anticipated periodic reports: the Hedge Fund Trend Monitor and Mutual Fundamentals. These reports provide a comprehensive overview of the quarterly activities and fund flows of hedge funds and mutual funds, respectively. Both reports ar...

Peter Schiff Analyzes Economic Stagflation, Biden's Tariffs, Powell's Remarks  This week, Peter Schiff returns to discuss new economic data, Powell's recent comments in the Netherlands, and the Biden administration's new tariffs. Signs of economic stagflation are increasing, but Biden, Powell, and their associates continue to deflect blame and...

European Stocks Surge but Strategists Remain Cautious for Year-End  The economic outlook and corporate profits might be improving, but strategists remain cautious about becoming significantly more optimistic for the remainder of the year. This sentiment is reflected in a monthly survey, which indicates that European stocks have possibly s...

Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 20 : US Stocks Hit Records, Inflation Eases  Global Markets Weekly Update United States Large-Cap Indexes Reach New Highs This week, major US stock indexes, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index, and Nasdaq Composite, hit record highs The Dow surpassed the 40,000 mark for the first time Eas...

Dow Hits Historic 40,000 Milestone Amid Market Turbulence  In late morning and early afternoon trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared past the significant milestone of 40,000, prompting jubilation among bullish investors. This surge was fueled by positive factors such as a lower April Consumer Price Index (CPI) and disappointing reta...

Mixed CPI Report Sparks Debate on Potential Rate Cuts  The latest CPI report exceeded expectations in three out of four key metrics, with only headline CPI slightly below the anticipated 0.4%. This has sparked discussion among analysts about whether it's enough to prompt an earlier rate cut. While some believe it could influence a cut in Septe...

Market Anticipates CPI Release: Impact on Rates and Stocks  In anticipation of tomorrow's market movements, attention has shifted from the recent April payrolls report, which was weaker than expected, to the upcoming CPI release. The market has been buoyed by the idea that negative economic news is actually positive for stocks, in contrast to ...

Market Anticipates Significant CPI Deviation; Morgan Stanley Economist Concurs  Last week, before the release of this week's significant CPI report on Wednesday, we discussed why we anticipate a substantial deviation in the CPI figure. Essentially, the component of the CPI basket related to Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) is falling behind the c...

Market Insights: Navigating Fluid Dynamics Amidst Tech Breakouts  Compared to the recent influx of data, this week has been relatively quiet, sandwiched between the FOMC meeting and the CPI report. However, Tony Pasquariello, Goldman Sachs' head of hedge fund coverage, admits that defining the current market narrative isn't straightforward. Wh...

Market Dynamics and Fed Speculation: Impact on CPI and Rate Cuts  Right after last month's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed inflation higher than expected for the fifth consecutive month... ... the market gave up hope for an imminent interest rate cut, reducing expectations for easing to just over one cut, likely in late 2024. W...

Corporate Buyback Surge Fuels Market Rally  Two weeks ago, there was a significant sell-off in the market that threatened to push the S&P below 5,000 and trigger more selling. However, it was noted that the buyback blackout period ended on April 26, leading to increased corporate buying and supporting the market. Since then, the market has...

Macro Markets React to Fed's Cautious Stance: Stocks Waver, Bonds Reverse, Dollar Edges Up  Another uneventful day in the macroeconomic realm, although a concerning development emerged late in the day with a surprisingly weak increase in revolving credit, hinting at potential exhaustion among US consumers. Some remarks from Federal Reserve off...

Fed's Dovish Turn Spurs Stock Rally: What Lies Ahead?  The recent FOMC meeting, led by Jerome Powell, spurred a surge in stock prices as Powell took a more cautious stance than anticipated. Although Powell acknowledged sluggish progress on inflation, the announcement of reversing "Quantitative Tightening" (QT) excited investors. Starting in Ju...