BofA Analysts Nailed Hot Retail Sales Forecast  Before today's release of retail sales data, Bank of America's highly knowledgeable analysts predicted a significant increase in the core figures... ...and their prediction was right on the money. Following a surprising jump in retail sales last month, mainly driven by Motor Vehicle & Parts s...

US Inflation Surges Again, Posing Challenges for Fed Policy  If you weren't completely cut off from news, you'd know that once again, US consumer prices surged unexpectedly, causing a headache for those hoping for a softer inflation narrative and making President Biden's re-election prospects tied to a Federal Reserve rate cut more complicated...

Global Markets Weekly Wrap KW 15 : U.S. Inflation Surprises, China's Weak Data Spark Concerns  In the U.S., inflation didn't meet expectations, surpassing projections in the U.S. and falling short in China. This led to a decline in major equity indices for the week due to concerns about potential conflict in the Middle East and persistent infl...

Central Banks Diverge as Gold Surges and Euro Slips  As we approach the weekend, gold prices have hit an all-time high and the euro has dropped below 1.07 for the first time since November last year, possibly due to concerns about a potential attack on Israel by Iran or its proxies. This week signifies a significant shift away from synchronize...

Market Bets on 1970s Inflation Revival, Despite Fed's Efforts  After spending the past couple of years rectifying his significant error from 2020/21, during which Powell flooded the market with excessive liquidity, triggering the second most significant inflation surge in modern US history (only overshadowed by the almost hyperinflation of the...

PPI Surges Despite CPI Dip, Inflationary Pressures Persist  Following yesterday's surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the PPI also increased, with headline producer prices rising 0.2% Month-over-Month (MoM) compared to the expected 0.3% MoM, pushing the Year-over-Year (YoY) PPI to +2.1% from the expected +2.2% - marking the highest level ...

ECB Keeps Rates Steady, Lagarde Optimistic on Disinflation  The European Central Bank (ECB) stated that it believes current interest rates are playing a significant role in the ongoing process of reducing inflation.  Financing conditions are still tight, and previous increases in interest rates are continuing to dampen demand, thus pushin...

ECB Holds Rates Amidst Rising Inflation Pressure  The money markets are reconsidering their expectations for interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) following higher-than-anticipated inflation data in the United States. Typically, these central banks hesitate to ease monetary policy before the Federa...

US Fiscal 2024: Record Debt Interest Matches Deficit, Spending Woes Persist  It's quite fitting that at a time when the interest on US debt has reached a record $1.1 trillion, the US deficit for the first six months of fiscal 2024 also stands at $1.1 trillion. According to the latest Treasury Monthly Statement, in March, the US deficit exceede...

Market Reassesses Rate Cut Expectations Amid Inflation Concerns  In simpler terms, the news about the Consumer Price Index (CPI) triggered thoughts of the song "Hot, hot, hot" by Buster Poindexter, which isn't a pleasant thought. Basically, the market is reassessing how many interest rate cuts might happen and when they might occur. Currently,...

CPI Surges: Energy & Services Drive Unexpected Inflation Jump  After consistently rising month-over-month for the past five months, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was anticipated to show a modest slowdown in March, from a 0.4% increase to a 0.3% increase. However, it unexpectedly rose by 0.4%, equaling the highest level since August 2023, ...

Market Momentum Stalls as Inflation Worries Resurface  The stock market's forward momentum is slowing down, and the surge in commodity prices is reigniting concerns about inflation. Despite these developments, Wall Street strategists are holding onto their optimistic outlook for now. HSBC's strategists, led by Max Kettner, believe that any set...

Market Sentiment Mixed as Investors Navigate Uncertain Terrain  Last week, there was a conflicting mix of signals influencing the market sentiment. Data and the Federal Reserve's stance leaned towards a more aggressive stance, raising doubts about the pace and extent of anticipated interest rate cuts in 2024. Additionally, there were notable m...

Market Skepticism Grows Over Fed's Rate Cut Plans  The prominent topic in the market discussions of 2024 revolves around the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts. With the influx of illegal immigrants into the US labor force and core CPI maintaining a high ~4% rate, opinions differ on whether rate cuts are necessary. Some, like Larry Sanders ...

Inflation Jitters Grip Treasury Market Ahead of CPI Release  The Treasury market is noticeably anxious as we approach this week's inflation report, especially given recent stronger-than-expected payrolls data. Bond traders are increasingly skeptical about the Fed's ability to achieve its inflation target, which suggests that there's a higher l...

Wall Street Alarmed: US Consumer Strength Falters Despite stocks nearing record highs, concerns are emerging on Wall Street regarding the US consumer, who drives a significant portion of the country's GDP growth despite being heavily indebted. According to Scott Feiler, a retail expert at Goldman Sachs, while there's general optimism among investor...

Market Volatility Sparks Concerns Amid 0DTE Dominance  This week, the markets have been heavily influenced by 0DTE options, creating a sense of stability, at least until yesterday afternoon, as reported by various sources. The surge in trading activity drove markets to highs, but suddenly, around 2 PM to 2:30 PM, things took a turn, leading to...

March Job Surge: 303K New Jobs Added, Unemployment Drops to 3.8%  March saw a surge in job creation, surpassing expectations with the addition of 303,000 jobs, which tied for the highest since January 2023. Despite predictions of a weaker job market, the influx of immigrants contributed to the stronger payroll numbers.  The unemployment r...

Welcome to the second quarter. US stock markets opened the quarter on a somewhat negative note, with the S&P 500 down by 1.0%, the Nasdaq composite by 0.7%, and the Dow Jones by 2.2% (as of the current update). Federal Reserve discussions and strong US economic indicators are raising doubts about the Fed's plan for three rate cuts. Minneapolis ...

Anticipated Employment Data Sparks Market Uncertainty  The upcoming employment data, while potentially credible, lacks trustworthiness due to recent months of manipulated and unreliable reports. Goldman trader John Flood refers to this data as the "appetizer" before the more significant Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on April 10th. Expectat...